Editing Statistics and Statistical Programming (Winter 2021)/Problem set 14
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* address any noteworthy observations from the descriptive summaries and plots | * address any noteworthy observations from the descriptive summaries and plots | ||
* summarize the regression results effectively (including the coefficients and <math>R^2</math> value). | * summarize the regression results effectively (including the coefficients and <math>R^2</math> value). | ||
* summarize the confidence interval around the estimate for < | * summarize the confidence interval around the estimate for <growth> that you calculated. | ||
* provide a substantive interpretation of the results in terms of the variables/concepts included in the analysis. | * provide a substantive interpretation of the results in terms of the variables/concepts included in the analysis. | ||
=== SQ2 Discuss regression diagnostics === | === SQ2 Discuss regression diagnostics === | ||
Describe the regression diagnostics and whether the conditions necessary to identify a least-squares fit seem to apply. If there are violations of these assumptions/conditions, consider how that might bias the results. | Describe the regression diagnostics and whether the conditions necessary to identify a least-squares fit seem to apply. If there are violations of these assumptions/conditions, consider how that might bias the results. | ||
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=== SQ4 Interpret out-of-sample prediction === | === SQ4 Interpret out-of-sample prediction === | ||
Discuss and interpret the out-of-sample prediction you calculated for Trump's vote share in 2020. Trump received about [https:// | Discuss and interpret the out-of-sample prediction you calculated for Trump's vote share in 2020. As of the writing of the problem set, Trump seems to have received about [https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election&oldid=988030609 47.6% of the popular vote]. How does this (not-yet-final) observed value relate to your prediction? How do you interpret this relationship? | ||
=== SQ5 Revisit (vaguely stated) theory === | === SQ5 Revisit (vaguely stated) theory === | ||
Insofar as we've only considered one part of the "bread and peace" theory here, how would you interpret your results in light of the prior theory/findings as described at the beginning of the problem set? Any confounding factors not present in the original theory/models that you think might be important to include? Why would you argue to include them (or not)? | Insofar as we've only considered one part of the "bread and peace" theory here, how would you interpret your results in light of the prior theory/findings as described at the beginning of the problem set? Any confounding factors not present in the original theory/models that you think might be important to include? Why would you argue to include them (or not)? |