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CommunityData:Participation Pathways
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=== Submission Data === I used data on submissions to reddit from the beginning of reddit through 2019 to build a dataset. It looks sequentially at submissions from each user, and the very first time that a user makes a new post in community ''j'' the edge between the community they posted in most recently (''i'') and ''j'' is incremented. I then took a very simple Bayesian approach to building a posterior likelihood distribution for the proportion of the time that people submit to ''j'' after submitting to ''i'' (rather than the reverse). If <math>C_{i,j}</math> is the count of times that ''j'' was posted in after ''i'', then the posterior with a uniform prior is <math>B(C_{i,j} + 1), B(C_{j,i} + 1)</math> where <math>B</math> is the Beta distribution. I think calculate the proportion of the posterior distribution that is < 0.5. This (I think!) can be thought of as the likelihood that the true probability is less than 0.5. By only taking edges where very little of the posterior probability is less than 0.5, we can identify communities where people are much more likely to post in ''j'' after ''i'' rather than the reverse. A dataset with only the edges where the posterior probability is less than .05 is at [https://jeremydfoote.com/files/outgoing/reddit_significant_edges.feather dataset].
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