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CommunityData:Wikia rises and declines
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== Threats to Validity and Limitations == === Measures === Our measures of “discussion following rejection” as an indication of the degree of impersonality in governance follows the prior work we aim to replicate. These measures are virtuous in their simplicity and clarity, but reduce complex interpersonal communication to counts of categories of interaction. This is a potential source of bias, noise, and a threat to construct and ecological validity. We do not attempt to identify desirable vs undesirable newcomers. Halfaker et al. (2013) did not find substantive differences between the two groups. However if we fail to fully replicate their findings, this could be a reason. Using first difference to measure rates of change is pretty freaking noisy! We hope to capture average trends, but it’s possible for oscillations and lags and other fun time series problems to impart bias. Using a smoothed average helps address such threats in exchange for new ones. We should fit multiple models with different specifications to make sure our results are robust to this decision. Using namespace 4 as a proxy for rules is also noisy and possibly biased. Some wikis use namespace 4 for activities other than norm setting and rule making. We have not found a good systematic way to separate these activities from rules. === Causality === Our data are observational and not capable of offering strong evidence for causal claims. === Generalizability === We are studying a lot of Wikis. Our theories are of concern to other kinds of communities (e.g. Reddit, OSM). We don’t know if our results generalize to such settings. Communities might make rules in response to other kinds of crises (consider instances of harassment). We don’t know if our results will generalize to rules created in response to other crises. Maybe governance strategies created in response to newcomers are more damaging to newcomers than governance systems targeted at managing other kinds of crises. === Theory === Our theory is incomplete. Maybe the feedback loop between newcomer influx and rule making dampens itself to a stable equilibria with a sustainable population and institutionalized rules. Maybe communities can identify when governance systems threaten growth and survival and scale them back. Our data and analysis don’t have much to say about that.
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